For some reason the NBA Draft is one of my favorite sports events of the year. Last night I stayed up late watching the ’86, ’88 and ’89 draft replays on NBATV — It’s hilarious to watch moments such as when the announcers lambasted the Heat for taking Glen Rice while Stacey King was still on the board, because “in basketball size is the most important thing”. (Rice became arguably the best player in this draft.)
Tonight’s draft looks to be one of the weakest in recent memory — without one “can’t miss” prospect. Last year we knew that Emeka Okeafor and Ben Gordon were destined to be solid NBA players (and thus far they are), and the year before brought us LeBron and Carmello. This year the two big names are Andrew Bogut of Utah, destined to be the next Will Purdue, and Marvin Williams of UNC, a raw talent packed with “P” — potential, but who didn’t even start in college. This year actually reminds me a bit of the ’89 draft I watched last night, where there was not a clear cut top player. (Pervis Ellison was picked first by the Kings over Danny Ferry and Sean Elliot.) The Spurs clearly got the best player in Elliot, but he dropped to #3 because of questions about his knee.
Looking back at the ’89 draft today, the most notable players showed up in the late first and even second rounds — Tim Hardaway at #14, Shawn Kemp at #17, Vlade Divac at #26, Cliff Robinson at #36 and Doug West at #38. I predict that the same trend will occur with the ’05 draft — only trick is picking which players will have an impact.
Since I really don’t know anything about the international players or the high school players, I’ll have to stick with college players. My sleeper picks:
– Hakim Warrick, Syracuse: As long and atheletic as Marvin Williams, with experience carrying a quality team on his back. Warrick is a sick athelete who could become a great NBA player if he develops his jumper. Should go around #15.
– Nate Robinson, Washington: Once again NBA scouts will be turned off by Nate’s diminutive size, but this guy is quick and strong enough to overcome it. He reminds me a bit of Iverson: not quite as quick but much stronger (played free safety for one year at UW), so he’ll be able to respond better to the nightly grind of the NBA. Should go early second round.
– Jarret Jack, Georgia Tech: Everyone called Chris Paul the best point guard in the ACC the past two years, but I’d rather have Jack. He is clearly a pass first player who understands how to run a team and get everone involved, but who also isn’t afraid to take and make the last shot. Jack probably won’t become a standalone superstar, but I do see him quarterbacking a championship squad. Should go late first/early second.